Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
